The odds
as of Nov 12, 22:15 UTC- Chance of yes 6.5% +2
Traded today$520
Traded in all$29K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 5: 7.5% · Nov 6: 8.5% · Nov 7: 7.5% · Nov 8: 7.5% · Nov 9: 7% · Nov 10: 7.5% · Nov 11: 7% · Nov 12: 6.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; Deutsche Welle; Financial Times; France 24 English; The Guardian; NBC News; The Times of India; Fox News; CBS News; ABC News; The Wall Street Journal; NHK World-Japan; CNN; The New York Times; BBC News; The Globe and Mail; Al Jazeera English; the Associated Press; Reuters; The South China Morning Post; Politico; Channel NewsAsia; Bloomberg News; ABC News Australia
See it on Kalshi ↗