The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- J.D. Vance 20% −1
- Jon Ossoff 12% +1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9.7% —
- Marco Rubio 8.8% —
- Gavin Newsom 8.3% —
- Kamala Harris 4.3% +0.6
- Andy Beshear 3.4% —
- Pete Buttigieg 2.9% —
Traded today$141K
Traded in all$71.0M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
J.D. Vance, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 20% · Sep 29: 20% · Sep 30: 20% · Oct 1: 20% · Oct 2: 20% · Oct 3: 20% · Oct 4: 20% · Oct 5: 20%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, J.D. Vance; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Office of the Presidency
See it on Kalshi ↗