The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2035 41% +1
- Before Jan 1, 2033 35% —
- Before Jan 1, 2031 27% —
- Before Jan 1, 2030 21% +6
- Before Jan 1, 2029 17% —
- Before Jan 1, 2028 11% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$560
Traded in all$49K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Before Jan 1, 2035, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 31: 40% · Nov 1: 40% · Nov 2: 43% · Nov 3: 43% · Nov 4: 43% · Nov 5: 43% · Nov 6: 43% · Nov 7: 41%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2035; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; Fox News; The Wall Street Journal; The Guardian; ABC; Bloomberg News; CBS; South China Morning Post; NBC; the Associated Press; The Verge; BBC; Axios; CNN; ABC News Australia; The Information; Semafor; MSNBC; CBC; Reuters; Politico; The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗