Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Markwayne Mullin; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Markwayne Mullin is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. Susie Wiles' departure as Chief of Staff, announced on Nov 6, 2026, occurred before Issuance and does not count. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well as the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.