The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18% +1
- Gavin Newsom 16% —
- Jon Ossoff 14% −1
- Kamala Harris 6.6% —
- Josh Shapiro 5.9% —
- Pete Buttigieg 5.1% —
- Andy Beshear 3% —
- Mark Kelly 2.6% —
Traded today$734K
Traded in all$1.3B
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 19% · Sep 29: 19% · Sep 30: 17% · Oct 1: 17% · Oct 2: 17% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 17% · Oct 5: 18%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
See it on Polymarket ↗