Every market we follow, once it settles: the winner's price a week before and a day before, and whether the favourite a week out came in. The odds are the venues'; the record is ours, and it grows with every market that settles.
What the winner was priced at, a week out
| Settled | Market | Winner | A week out | A day out | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election? Kalshi · Politics & elections | No | 91% | 94% | Called it |
| 2026-10-05 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Polymarket · Politics & elections | Flavio Bolsonaro | 26% | 39% | Upset |
| 2026-10-01 | Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor? Kalshi · Politics & elections | Keith Sonderling | 97% | 98% | Called it |
| 2026-09-23 | Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · World | USA | <1% | 14% | Upset |
| 2026-09-21 | Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Polymarket · World | United Russia (ER) | 80% | 82% | Called it |
| 2026-09-21 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner? Kalshi · Politics & elections | AfD | 82% | 48% | Called it |
| 2026-09-20 | Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · World | September 30 | 97% | >99% | Called it |
| 2026-09-16 | Fed Decision in September? Polymarket · Economy | 25 bps increase | 53% | 89% | Called it |
| 2026-09-06 | Saxony-Anhalt state election winner? Kalshi · Politics & elections | AfD | 99% | 99% | Called it |
| 2026-08-29 | South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory? Kalshi · Politics & elections | Darline Graham, 3-6% | 9.5% | >99% | Upset |
| 2026-08-27 | Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place Kalshi · Politics & elections | Jay Collins | >99% | >99% | Called it |
| 2026-08-27 | FL-06 Republican primary margin of victory? Kalshi · Politics & elections | Randy Fine, 30-40% | 96% | 96% | Called it |
| 2026-08-26 | Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory? Kalshi · Politics & elections | David Crowley, 0-3% | >99% | >99% | Called it |
| 2026-08-25 | Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place Kalshi · Politics & elections | Haley Stevens | >99% | >99% | Called it |
| 2026-08-25 | Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? Kalshi · Politics & elections | Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3% | >99% | >99% | Called it |
| 2026-08-12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · World | July 31 | 84% | 94% | Called it |
| 2026-07-30 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...? Polymarket · World | July 31 | 22% | 100% | Upset |
A week out = the venue's last price at least seven days before the market closed. "Called it" = the eventual winner was at 50% or more then. Settled markets link to the venue.