Moving
Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 5% ▼−85Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Nottingham Forest 94% ▲+73Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC Nottingham Forest FC 93% ▲+72Leganes vs Albacete Albacete 96% ▲+69Kansas City vs Angel City FC Tie 90% ▲+69CD Leganés vs. Albacete Balompié Albacete Balompié 95% ▲+69Morehead St. vs Marist Morehead St. 76% ▲+61University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Novemb… 49.0 to 51.9 75% ▲+52CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independie… CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza 81% ▲+52Mendoza vs Rivadavia Mendoza 80% ▲+51Robert Morris vs Duquesne Duquesne 30% ▼−50Riga FC vs. FC RFS Draw (Riga FC vs. FC RFS) 96% ▲+48Artnak vs Bigun Bor Artnak 96% ▲+46Osasuna vs Bilbao Tie 70% ▲+43
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?

December 31 leads at 54% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC. It's down 13 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 54% ▼ 13 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC
  • December 31 54% −13
  • November 30 26% −35

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 30Nov 757%

Oct 31: 54% · Nov 1: 41% · Nov 2: 52% · Nov 3: 42% · Nov 4: 43% · Nov 5: 60% · Nov 6: 66% · Nov 7: 57%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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