The odds
as of Nov 9, 04:20 UTC- Before 2040 52% —
- Before 2035 47% −7
- Before 2030 30% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$721
Traded in all$51K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Before 2040, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 52% · Nov 4: 52% · Nov 5: 52% · Nov 6: 52% · Nov 7: 52% · Nov 8: 52% · Nov 9: 52%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2040; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Financial Times
See it on Kalshi ↗