The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- J.D. Vance 45% —
- Marco Rubio 18% +1
- Ron DeSantis 4.2% —
- Tucker Carlson 2.9% —
- Donald J. Trump Jr. 2.8% —
- Donald J. Trump 2.1% —
- Ted Cruz 1.9% —
- Brian Kemp 1.6% —
Traded today$135K
Traded in all$68.4M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
J.D. Vance, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 45% · Sep 29: 45% · Sep 30: 45% · Oct 1: 45% · Oct 2: 45% · Oct 3: 45% · Oct 4: 45% · Oct 5: 45%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, J.D. Vance; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Republican Party
See it on Kalshi ↗