The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- December 31, 2027 63% —
- June 30, 2027 43% —
- February 28, 2027 25% +4
- January 31, 2027 20% —
- December 31, 2026 14% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$1.3M
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
December 31, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 65% · Sep 29: 63% · Sep 30: 63% · Oct 1: 63% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 63% · Oct 4: 63% · Oct 5: 63%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗