The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- J.D. Vance 50% —
- Marco Rubio 15% —
- Tucker Carlson 3.1% —
- Ron DeSantis 2.6% —
- Ted Cruz 2.5% —
- Donald Trump 1.9% —
- Donald Trump Jr. 1.6% —
- Ivanka Trump <1% —
Traded today$237K
Traded in all$709.7M
Favourite, 7 days−0.7 pts
J.D. Vance, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 51% · Sep 29: 51% · Sep 30: 50% · Oct 1: 50% · Oct 2: 50% · Oct 3: 50% · Oct 4: 50% · Oct 5: 50%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
See it on Polymarket ↗