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When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+? Before Nov 13, 2026 6% ▼−67Brace vs Gailis Rachel Gailis 86% ▲+64Diizon Belfon vs Eduardo Mancilla Diizon Belfon 97% ▲+62Will Jensen Huang testify in front of Congress? Before Jan 2027 84% ▲+59Grenada vs Saint Kitts & Nevis Grenada 21% ▼−57Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit? Before Jan 1, 2030 72% ▲+56Barbados vs Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 95% ▲+50Czechia vs. Spain - Exact Score Czechia 4 - 4 Spain 49% ▲+48Italy vs. France - Exact Score Italy 3 - 5 France 50% ▲+47Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? Howard Lutnick 57% ▲+45England vs. Croatia - Exact Score Any Other Score 50% ▲+44Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Howard Lutnick 65% ▲+41Almeida vs Corwin Joaquim Almeida 92% ▲+41Benin vs Central African Republic Benin 96% ▲+35
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2029

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Howard Lutnick leads at 57% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 12, 20:16 UTC. It's up 45 points in the last 24 hours.

Howard Lutnick 57% ▲ 45 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 12, 20:16 UTC
  • Howard Lutnick 57% +45
  • Pete Hegseth 17% −7
  • Marco Rubio 11% −4
  • Lee Zeldin 7% −4
  • Linda McMahon 6% −8.5
  • Chris Wright 2.5% −6
  • None before 2029 2.5% +0.5
  • Mike Waltz 1.1% —
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+32 pts

Howard Lutnick, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 7Nov 1258%

Nov 7: 16% · Nov 8: 14% · Nov 9: 14% · Nov 10: 15% · Nov 11: 14% · Nov 12: 58%

The same question on Kalshi

Polymarket57%Howard Lutnick
8 pt gap
Kalshi65%Howard Lutnick →

Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Nov 12, 20:16 UTC.

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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