The odds
as of Nov 11, 19:14 UTC- Above 3 96% −1
- Above 4 88% +1
- Above 5 71% −2
- Above 6 43% −2
- Above 7 24% +1
- Above 8 3.5% −3
- Above 9 1.5% −1
- Above 10 1.5% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$32K
Traded in all$80K
Favourite, 7 days+46 pts
Above 3, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 6: 50% · Nov 7: 96% · Nov 8: 96% · Nov 9: 98% · Nov 10: 96% · Nov 11: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗