The odds
as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC- Lindsay Clancy 74% +2
- Erling Haaland 50% −1
- Savannah Guthrie 46% —
- Bad Bunny 41% −5
- Nicolás Maduro 30% +5
- Nick Shirley 13% —
- Donald Trump 9.5% —
- Taylor Swift 9% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$984
Traded in all$159K
Favourite, 7 days+34 pts
Lindsay Clancy, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 41% · Sep 30: 53% · Oct 1: 41% · Oct 2: 74% · Oct 3: 71% · Oct 4: 74% · Oct 5: 73% · Oct 6: 74%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Lindsay Clancy; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Lindsay Clancy is in Top 5 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the individuals ranked in the “People” section of Google’s official Year in Search 2026 – Global list. Google’s report includes multiple sections such as Searches, News, Passings, and People — only the People section applies to this market. If Liam Payne is #1 in “Searches” but Donald Trump is #1 in “People,” the market resolves Yes to Donald Trump. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Google. Any references Google, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Google and Kalshi.
Settlement sources: Google Trends
See it on Kalshi ↗