The odds
as of Nov 10, 23:13 UTC- Tom Barrett 10% −9
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks 6% −9
- Don Bacon 5% −59
- Jared Golden 3.5% —
- Henry Cuellar 3.5% −33
- Warren Davidson 3.5% −41
- Zach Nunn 3.5% −13
- French Hill 3.5% −28
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$39K
Traded in all$42K
Favourite, 7 days−40 pts
Tom Barrett, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 8: 14% · Nov 9: 26% · Nov 10: 34%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Tom Barrett; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Tom Barrett votes for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth in the House before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying vote is the House's first vote on adopting a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth, whether or not it is adopted. If the House votes on that resolution's articles separately, voting for any of its articles counts as voting for the resolution. A vote on a motion to table, refer, or postpone the resolution, on ordering the previous question, on a special rule, or on whether to consider the resolution is not a qualifying vote, and voting against such a motion is not voting for the resolution. This must be a vote in the relevant full chamber, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by the member to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other Congressional source.
Settlement sources: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives; U.S. Congress
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