The odds
as of Nov 4, 17:15 UTC- Before Jul 1, 2027 49% −16
- Before Apr 1, 2027 25% −34
- Before Jan 1, 2027 12% −7
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$14K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−17 pts
Before Jul 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 66% · Oct 29: 66% · Oct 30: 67% · Oct 31: 65% · Nov 1: 66% · Nov 2: 70% · Nov 3: 67% · Nov 4: 44%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jul 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Hegseth is impeached when the U.S. House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against him; a Senate trial or conviction is not required.
Settlement sources: Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives; the Associated Press; Reuters; The New York Times; The Washington Post; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗