The odds
as of Nov 11, 08:20 UTC- Above 170 81% +23
- Above 175 5% —
- Above 180 80% −4
- Above 185 68% —
- Above 190 52% −6
- Above 195 47% +5
- Above 200 27% −2
- Above 205 16% −12
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$17K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+23 pts
Above 170, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 10: 89% · Nov 11: 90%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 170; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗