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Philadelphia vs Detroit: 3rd Quarter Winner Tie 93% ▲+88Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? South Carolina 4% ▼−822026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout? 125 million and above 7.6% ▼−81Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… James Talarico 3.5% ▼−80Which party will win white voters in the midterms? Republicans 16% ▼−78Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 91% ▲+76Oklahoma's 5th District margin of victory Bice, 2+ pts 4.9% ▼−69Alaska House winner? Bill Hill 14% ▼−65North Carolina State Senate winner? Democratic party 10% ▼−61How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the … At least 14 8.5% ▼−54Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin? Ossoff by 3-6 63% ▲+54Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? Nithya Raman, 6-8% 59% ▲+53Iowa: Sand's margin vs. Turek's margin? Sand by 6-9 90% ▲+5376ers vs. Pistons 76ers 95% ▲+49
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Oklahoma's 5th District margin of victory

Bice, 1+ pts leads at 94% (about 9 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 02:21 UTC. It's up 18 points in the last 24 hours.

Bice, 1+ pts 94% ▲ 18 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 02:21 UTC
  • Bice, 1+ pts 94% +18
  • Bice, 2+ pts 4.9% −69
  • Bice, 5+ pts 1.3% −59
  • Bice, 8+ pts 1.1% −52
  • Bice, 11+ pts 1% −33
  • Bice, 14+ pts <1% −15
  • Bice, 17+ pts <1% −13
  • Bice, 20+ pts <1% −32

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$43K
Traded in all$55K
Favourite, 7 days+19 pts

Bice, 1+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Nov 2Nov 594%

Nov 2: 76% · Nov 3: 84% · Nov 4: 89% · Nov 5: 94%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Bice, 1+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oklahoma's 5th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: Oklahoma State Election Board

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