The odds
as of Nov 4, 17:15 UTC- June 30, 2027 42% −30
- March 31, 2027 31% −21
- December 31, 2026 5.8% −10
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$195K
Favourite, 7 days−25 pts
June 30, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 28: 66% · Oct 29: 70% · Oct 30: 72% · Oct 31: 67% · Nov 1: 70% · Nov 2: 48% · Nov 3: 59% · Nov 4: 42%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗