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PolymarketCloses April 19, 2027

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen leads at 45% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • Marine Le Pen 45% —
  • Édouard Philippe 18% +0.5
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12% −1
  • David Lisnard 11% +1
  • François Hollande 3.6% −1.3
  • Gabriel Attal 2.1% —
  • Raphaël Glucksmann 1.5% —
  • Bruno Retailleau 1.4% —
Traded today$1.1M
Traded in all$144.1M
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts

Marine Le Pen, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 545%

Sep 28: 40% · Sep 29: 43% · Sep 30: 43% · Oct 1: 42% · Oct 2: 46% · Oct 3: 45% · Oct 4: 45% · Oct 5: 45%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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