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How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by Dece… No vote 96% ▲+81Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Before Jan 1, 2027 7.5% ▼−78Pete Hegseth impeached by...? December 31, 2026 3.4% ▼−78Which Representatives will vote to impeach Pete He… Thomas Massie 15% ▼−77How many House Republicans will vote to impeach Pe… At least 1 11% ▼−65How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? <$65B 69% ▲+64Will Iran target Oman by...? November 30 75% ▲+59Who will be the next Speaker of the Knesset? Matan Kahana 94% ▲+55Harvard vs Northeastern Harvard 25% ▼−51Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Pause-Hike-Hike 45% ▲+39Khalil Mack Next Team Los Angeles C 96% ▲+38Shick vs Miyoshi Kenta Miyoshi (b. 2004) 85% ▲+37Miami vs Utah: Pts + Reb + Ast Lauri Markkanen: 25+ 87% ▲+37Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee? (2028) Conor Lamb 47% ▲+34
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?

No vote leads at 96% (about 10 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 11, 00:36 UTC. It's up 81 points in the last 24 hours.

No vote 96% ▲ 81 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 11, 00:36 UTC
  • No vote 96% +81
  • 215-219 2.5% −21
  • <215 2.2% −7.3
  • 220-224 1% −26
  • 225-229 1% −16
  • 230-234 <1% −4.5
  • 235-239 <1% −7.6
  • 240+ <1% −17
Traded today$27K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+64 pts

No vote, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 7Nov 1196%

Nov 7: 34% · Nov 8: 16% · Nov 9: 14% · Nov 10: 38% · Nov 11: 96%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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