The odds
as of Nov 7, 22:14 UTC- National 97% +30
- Labour 3.1% −38
- Opportunity 1% —
- Green <1% —
- ACT <1% −4
- NZ First <1% —
- Te Pāti Māori <1% −6
Traded today$34K
Traded in all$49K
Favourite, 7 days+28 pts
National, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 31: 69% · Nov 1: 70% · Nov 2: 69% · Nov 3: 70% · Nov 4: 68% · Nov 5: 67% · Nov 6: 67% · Nov 7: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, National; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the National party wins the next New Zealand general election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: the New Zealand Electoral Commission
See it on Kalshi ↗