The odds
as of Nov 10, 19:14 UTC- At least 1 83% +2
- At least 3 63% −7
- At least 5 33% −29
- At least 8 14% −33
- At least 12 13% —
- At least 20 7% −24
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+33 pts
At least 1, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 8: 74% · Nov 9: 81% · Nov 10: 82%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 1; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote on adopting a resolution or article impeaching Pete Hegseth is at least 1 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The vote that counts is the first recorded House vote on adopting a resolution or an article of impeachment against Pete Hegseth, whether or not the House adopts it. If the articles are voted on separately, the vote on the first article counts. Only Yea votes by Representatives listed as Republicans in the Clerk of the House's roll call for that vote count. Does NOT count: A vote on a motion to table, refer, postpone or otherwise dispose of an impeachment resolution, or on a special rule or the previous question A committee vote If there is no such vote before Jan 3, 2027, the number is zero.
Settlement sources: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives
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