Moving
"Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes) 30-32m 3.4% ▼−70Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? December 31 36% ▼−32Dancing with the Stars · Episode 5 Elimination Jackson Olson 56% ▲+24CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? Exactly 3.6% 46% ▲+23Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? March 31, 2027 63% ▲+23EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? 32M+ 85% ▲+22What will the next Muse model family be named? Muse Flare 15% ▼−21Brazil Presidential election winner? Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% ▼−20Brazil Presidential Election Flávio Bolsonaro 83% ▲+19New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027: Headlin… Jon Batiste 60% ▼−17Next leader out of power before 2027? Sánchez - Spanish PM 23% ▲+15Gemini 4.0 released by...? October 15 73% ▼−14Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? No solution by Dec 31, 2027 37% ▲+14When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1? Before Oct 30, 2026 20% ▲+13
PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

December 31 leads at 93% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's down 2 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • December 31 93% −2
  • October 31 20% −1.5
  • October 23 11% −3.5
  • October 16 5.3% −7.8
  • October 9 3.3% −4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$18K
Traded in all$156K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 593%

Sep 28: 80% · Sep 29: 89% · Sep 30: 89% · Oct 1: 93% · Oct 2: 91% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 95% · Oct 5: 93%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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