Moving
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? December 31 36% ▼−32Brazil Presidential election winner? Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% ▼−20"Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office 12-13m 96% ▲+20Brazil Presidential Election Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% ▼−19New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027: Headlin… Jon Batiste 60% ▼−17When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1? Before Oct 30, 2026 18% ▲+16SpaceX Starship 15th launch? Before Nov 13, 2026 84% ▲+16"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31? <150m 36% ▼−14Next leader out of power before 2027? Sánchez - Spanish PM 23% ▲+14Gemini 4.0 released by...? October 15 73% ▲+14How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? 5.4% 51% ▼−13Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? June 30, 2027 64% ▼−13US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? December 31 31% ▼−10GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? October 31 19% ▼−10
PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

December 31 leads at 36% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC. It's down 32 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC
  • December 31 36% −32
  • November 30 31% −18
  • October 31 19% −4.5
  • October 23 12% −8.5
  • October 15 9% +0.5
  • October 9 3.7% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$25K
Traded in all$1.6M
Favourite, 7 days+10 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 2Oct 536%

Oct 2: 52% · Oct 3: 68% · Oct 4: 48% · Oct 5: 36%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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