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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2028

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

No solution by Dec 31, 2027 leads at 38% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC. It's up 14 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC
  • No solution by Dec 31, 2027 38% +14
  • Hodge Conjecture 36% −0.5
  • Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 22% +0.5
  • Yang-Mills 5.8% —
  • Riemann Hypothesis 1.5% −1
  • P versus NP 1.3% −2.5
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$222K
Favourite, 7 days+16 pts

No solution by Dec 31, 2027, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 538%

Sep 28: 22% · Sep 29: 26% · Sep 30: 27% · Oct 1: 22% · Oct 2: 24% · Oct 3: 24% · Oct 4: 26% · Oct 5: 38%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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