The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Before Jan 20, 2029 23% −2
- Before 2028 14% —
- Before 2027 4.5% —
- Before November 1.5% +1
- Before December 1.5% +1
- Before August 1% —
- Before September 1% —
- Before October 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$79K
Traded in all$36.2M
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Before Jan 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 20% · Sep 29: 19% · Sep 30: 22% · Oct 1: 20% · Oct 2: 23% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 23% · Oct 5: 23%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Settlement sources: the Executive Branch of the United States government
See it on Kalshi ↗