The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- November 30 96% −1.5
- October 31 90% +8
- October 15 73% +14
- October 10 33% +5
- October 5 2.1% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$1.0M
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
November 30, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 91% · Sep 29: 93% · Sep 30: 97% · Oct 1: 98% · Oct 2: 98% · Oct 3: 98% · Oct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 96%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗