The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- December 31 3.1% —
- October 31 1.4% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$133K
Traded in all$71.6M
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 3.6% · Sep 29: 3.3% · Sep 30: 3.4% · Oct 1: 3.3% · Oct 2: 2.8% · Oct 3: 3% · Oct 4: 3.2% · Oct 5: 3.2%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗