The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Claude 51% —
- Gemini 35% −2.4
- ChatGPT 9.6% —
- Grok 3.3% —
- Muse Spark 1.7% +0.5
- Kimi 1% —
- Qwen <1% —
- Ernie <1% —
Traded today$126K
Traded in all$13.7M
Favourite, 7 days−23 pts
Claude, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 76% · Sep 29: 74% · Sep 30: 51% · Oct 1: 52% · Oct 2: 51% · Oct 3: 52% · Oct 4: 51% · Oct 5: 51%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Claude; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
See it on Kalshi ↗