The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Flávio Bolsonaro 83% +19
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% −19
- Geraldo Alckmin <1% —
- Tarcisio de Freitas <1% —
- Jair Bolsonaro <1% —
- Michelle Bolsonaro <1% —
- Eduardo Bolsonaro <1% —
- Ratinho Júnior <1% —
Traded today$6.1M
Traded in all$170.8M
Favourite, 7 days+25 pts
Flávio Bolsonaro, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 58% · Sep 29: 59% · Sep 30: 61% · Oct 1: 60% · Oct 2: 57% · Oct 3: 65% · Oct 4: 83% · Oct 5: 83%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
See it on Polymarket ↗