The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- None before 2027 33% −0.5
- Netanyahu - Israel PM 30% −1.5
- Sánchez - Spanish PM 23% +14
- Lecornu - France PM 6.3% −4.5
- Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1.4% −1
- Abbas - President of Palestine 1.3% −1
- Merz - German Chancellor 1.2% −3
- Putin - Russia President <1% —
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$738K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
None before 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 34% · Sep 29: 35% · Sep 30: 36% · Oct 1: 33% · Oct 2: 26% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 33% · Oct 5: 33%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗