The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Flávio Bolsonaro 84% +19
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17% −20
- Ciro Gomes 1% —
- Augusto Cury 1% —
- Eduardo Bolsonaro <1% —
- Ratinho Júnior <1% —
- Romeu Zema <1% —
- Aldo Rebelo <1% —
Traded today$1.4M
Traded in all$7.3M
Favourite, 7 days+26 pts
Flávio Bolsonaro, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 56% · Sep 29: 59% · Sep 30: 60% · Oct 1: 62% · Oct 2: 57% · Oct 3: 64% · Oct 4: 83% · Oct 5: 84%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Flávio Bolsonaro; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AP
See it on Kalshi ↗