The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Before Nov 13, 2026 21% −1
- Before Nov 6, 2026 20% +10
- Before Oct 30, 2026 18% +16
- Before Oct 23, 2026 8% +3
- Before Oct 16, 2026 4.5% −1
- Before Sep 25, 2026 1% —
- Before Oct 2, 2026 1% —
- Before Oct 9, 2026 1% −3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$29K
Traded in all$189K
Favourite, 7 days−60 pts
Before Nov 13, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 44% · Sep 29: 38% · Sep 30: 31% · Oct 1: 20% · Oct 2: 13% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 18% · Oct 5: 21%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Nov 13, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Settlement sources: OpenAI
See it on Kalshi ↗