The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Before Dec 11, 2026 95% +0.5
- Before Nov 27, 2026 85% —
- Before Nov 13, 2026 74% +6
- Before Oct 30, 2026 8.5% −3
- Before Oct 16, 2026 1.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$60K
Favourite, 7 days+45 pts
Before Dec 11, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 92% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 97% · Oct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 95% · Oct 5: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Dec 11, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Dec 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX
Settlement sources: SpaceX
See it on Kalshi ↗