The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Flávio Bolsonaro >99% +63
- Augusto Cury 1% —
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva <1% −63
- Renan Santos <1% —
- Romeu Zema <1% —
- Fernando Haddad <1% —
- Ronaldo Caiado <1% —
- Tarcísio de Freitas <1% —
Traded today$926K
Traded in all$1.3M
Favourite, 7 days+73 pts
Flávio Bolsonaro, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 25% · Sep 29: 26% · Sep 30: 29% · Oct 1: 28% · Oct 2: 26% · Oct 3: 40% · Oct 4: 99% · Oct 5: >99%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Flávio Bolsonaro; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
See it on Kalshi ↗