The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Tarcisio de Freitas <1% —
- Jair Bolsonaro <1% —
- Fernando Haddad <1% —
- Flávio Bolsonaro <1% −60
- Romeu Zema <1% —
- Camilo Santana <1% —
- Geraldo Alckmin <1% —
- Eduardo Leite <1% —
Traded today$1.6M
Traded in all$10.9M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Tarcisio de Freitas, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: <1% · Sep 29: <1% · Sep 30: <1% · Oct 1: <1% · Oct 2: <1% · Oct 3: <1% · Oct 4: <1% · Oct 5: <1%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
See it on Polymarket ↗