The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Gemini 69% +5
- Claude 32% −6
- ChatGPT 2.5% +3
- Muse 1.5% +1
- Grok 1% —
- Qwen 1% —
- Kimi 1% —
Traded today$26K
Traded in all$161K
Favourite, 7 days+21 pts
Gemini, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 20% · Sep 30: 72% · Oct 1: 66% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 63% · Oct 4: 69% · Oct 5: 69%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Gemini; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
Settlement sources: LMArena Leaderboard
See it on Kalshi ↗