The odds
as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC- Xavier Becerra 96% —
- Steve Hilton 3.6% +0.5
Traded today$181K
Traded in all$15.8M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Xavier Becerra, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 96% · Sep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 97% · Oct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 97% · Oct 4: 96% · Oct 5: 96%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 06:31 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Xavier Becerra; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: the California Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗