The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:04 UTC- Jordan 21% +13
- Kuwait 8.5% +0.5
- Somaliland 8.5% +0.5
- Qatar 6.7% +3
- Lebanon 6.5% −2
- Saudi Arabia 6.5% −1
- Egypt 5.8% —
- Syria 5.1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$1.7M
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
Jordan, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 6.5% · Sep 29: 6.5% · Sep 30: 6.5% · Oct 1: 6.5% · Oct 2: 7.5% · Oct 3: 7.5% · Oct 4: 38% · Oct 5: 20%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗