The odds
as of Nov 11, 18:18 UTC- Above 1.00% 96% —
- Above 1.25% 96% +1
- Above 1.50% 97% −4
- Above 1.75% 95% −5
- Above 2.00% 93% −2
- Above 2.25% 93% −3
- Above 2.50% 92% −3
- Above 2.75% 92% −2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$199K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Above 1.50%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 4: 95% · Nov 5: 95% · Nov 6: 95% · Nov 7: 96% · Nov 8: 94% · Nov 9: 97% · Nov 10: 98% · Nov 11: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 1.50%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
See it on Kalshi ↗