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PolymarketCloses December 10, 2026

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase leads at 72% (about 7 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's down 2 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • 25 bps increase 72% −2
  • No change 26% +1.5
  • 50+ bps increase 3.3% +1.5
  • 25 bps decrease 1.3% —
  • 50+ bps decrease <1% —
Traded today$24K
Traded in all$2.6M
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts

25 bps increase, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 572%

Sep 28: 78% · Sep 29: 76% · Sep 30: 74% · Oct 1: 68% · Oct 2: 75% · Oct 3: 74% · Oct 4: 72% · Oct 5: 72%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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