The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Hike 25bps 71% —
- Fed maintains rate 26% +2
- Hike >25bps 2.5% +1
- Cut 25bps 1.5% —
- Cut >25bps 1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$779K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Hike 25bps, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 76% · Sep 29: 75% · Sep 30: 73% · Oct 1: 70% · Oct 2: 72% · Oct 3: 71% · Oct 4: 71% · Oct 5: 71%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Hike 25bps; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗