The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before Mar 1, 2027 89% —
- Before Apr 1, 2027 89% −3
- Before Feb 1, 2027 86% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 78% +1
- Before Dec 1, 2026 67% −3
- Before Nov 1, 2026 3.5% —
- Before Oct 24, 2026 2% —
- Before Aug 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$2.7M
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Before Mar 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 88% · Sep 29: 90% · Sep 30: 90% · Oct 1: 92% · Oct 2: 89% · Oct 3: 89% · Oct 4: 89%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Mar 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Mar 1, 2027.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; ABC; Bloomberg; The Wall Street Journal; Financial Times; CNBC; Reuters; Anthropic
See it on Kalshi ↗