The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Democrats sweep 64% —
- D-House, R-Senate 28% −1
- Republicans sweep 8.6% —
- R-House, D-Senate 1.1% —
Traded today$474K
Traded in all$29.3M
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Democrats sweep, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 62% · Sep 29: 62% · Sep 30: 62% · Oct 1: 62% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 64% · Oct 4: 63% · Oct 5: 64%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democrats sweep; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL. Each CONTROL component may resolve on an accelerated basis as outlined in the full rules.
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗