The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Democratic Party 64% +1
- Republican Party 36% −1
Traded today$125K
Traded in all$12.4M
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Democratic Party, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 62% · Sep 29: 63% · Sep 30: 63% · Oct 1: 63% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 65% · Oct 4: 64% · Oct 5: 64%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democratic Party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗