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PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 31 leads at 65% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's up 5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • December 31 65% +5
  • November 30 56% +7
  • October 31 33% +3
  • October 15 14% +1.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$28K
Traded in all$1.1M
Favourite, 7 days−5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 565%

Sep 28: 67% · Sep 29: 69% · Sep 30: 71% · Oct 1: 70% · Oct 2: 70% · Oct 3: 60% · Oct 4: 65% · Oct 5: 65%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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