The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- December 31 17% −0.5
- October 31 7% −0.5
- September 30 <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$224K
Traded in all$16.3M
Favourite, 7 days−1.5 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 17% · Sep 29: 18% · Sep 30: 17% · Oct 1: 18% · Oct 2: 18% · Oct 3: 18% · Oct 4: 18% · Oct 5: 17%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
See it on Polymarket ↗