The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Chance of yes 16% —
Traded today$184K
Traded in all$71.7M
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 14% · Sep 29: 14% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 16% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 16% · Oct 5: 16%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
See it on Polymarket ↗