The odds
as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC- Jack Lowden 38% +1
- No Bond chosen 26% —
- Callum Turner 17% +5
- Jack O'Connell 7.4% —
- Jack Barton 7.2% −1.3
- Paul Mescal 2.5% −0.5
- Harris Dickinson 1.5% —
- Tom Francis 1.1% −3
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$1.3M
Favourite, 7 days−10 pts
Jack Lowden, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 48% · Sep 29: 33% · Sep 30: 43% · Oct 1: 40% · Oct 2: 37% · Oct 3: 37% · Oct 4: 40% · Oct 5: 38%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 04:33 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗